This is the error:
The signer's certificate is not valid for signing.
SignTool Error: An error occurred while attempting to sign: bin\Debug\app.publish\\setup.exe
A very good work but not work with me: http://www.may.be/renewcert/
A very good comment that brings me to the road and solve the problem:
This the magic comment:
Are you signing your ClickOnce deployment? If you go to the Signing tab for your project, do you have a certificate selected?
If you are just pushing updates for the same application, you will want to track down the certificate file (pfx) you used to use and sign with it instead of creating a new one, so the deployment does not think you created a new certificate.
If you are just deploying something new, you can create a test certificate and use that.